一 | Dr. Alexander Azadgan, professor of business studies and international political economy in Southern California, explains why President Putin's trip to Tehran was so significant and reflects on skyrocketing energy prices as well as the future of the Iran nuclear deal.,Sputnik: How effective was President Putin's visit to Tehran, considering the geopolitical challenges countries face at present?,Dr Alexander Azadgan: Very, very effective. We are witnesses of Gazprom and NIOC, which stands for National Iranian Oil Company, signing a $40 billion contract for Russia to develop six Iranian oilfields in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the Pars field, which is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Qataris call it the North field, Iranians call it the South Pars field. It's one of the biggest underwater natural gas reserves in the world, if not the biggest itself. Qatar and Iran have been sharing it. Iran, of course, has not had the technology to extract as much as the Qataris. Around one-fifth of it is in the Iranian territorial water, four-fifths in Qatari water.,RussiaPutin Praises Record-High Trade Turnover With Iran at Meeting With Raisi19 July, 14:12 GMT,There will also be a product swap exchange between Iran and Russia, completion of LNG projects, liquid natural gas plus construction of gas export pipelines and other scientific and technological cooperation. This oil and gas deal is reportedly the largest in Iran's history, $40 billion. Before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reneged, French company Total was interested in excavating and helping the Iranians. Of course, they reneged, like so many other things, and Russia has stepped in right now. It's a win-win for both countries, but it has its own complications as well.,Sputnik: Do you agree with President Putin's assertion that Western policies over "the previous decade" were to blame for soaring energy prices?,Dr Azadgan: Iranian relations right now are better than with the previous administration, the Rouhani administration. The conservatives are in charge right now. President Raisi visited Moscow not too long ago. And the conservatives have had the tendency in the past several years to lean more towards Russia, especially with IRGC and all the advancements that that body of military is making. We cannot leave out Iranian internal politics when it comes to the overall Russo-Iranian relations.,RussiaPutin: Western Policies From Last 10 Years to Blame for Soaring Energy Prices20 July, 03:29 GMT,Keep in mind that US invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iraq being one of the top five exporters of oil at that time and one of the top five exporters of oil to United States now, was a catastrophic mistake in a sense that the neocons at that time were delusional to think that by causing havoc in the region, especially obviously toward Iraq, there will be less export of Iraq's oil to the Far East, the growing economies of China, in particular, followed by South Korea and Japan. All that is part of what we are seeing today when it comes to inflation.,Now the supply and demand has not changed in the world - the reason the price of oil has increased is because of the perception of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia to continue. There is no logical reason for this change. I think, unfortunately, with Washington really triggering Russia over NATO's expansion during the past many years, most people think this conflict just started. If you want to go back, it depends on what your frame of reference is. You can go back to 2004 in Ukraine, followed by the Orange Revolution. There's been a lot of political intrusion by Washington and Brussels. And unfortunately, we find ourselves in the current situation, which could affect the entire global economy in a very hyper-inflationary hell, really. This is what economists are most scared of - a hyper inflationary situation.,Sputnik: How much has Europe's decision to turn its back on traditional energy sources added to the present crisis?,Dr Azadgan: With the whole environmental movement, which obviously is of an urgency, we need to realize that green energy is not going to provide the energy demand of 8 billion people. It's just simply not possible. I think we need to be more realistic that obviously oil is going to be with us for a long time. Natural gas is the transitioning method of energy. We will have that for many years, it is cleaner, but both of them are going to be along for a long time. And to start making the change now in such a naive, extreme, erratic way is going to have major economic backlashes.,Not to mention the political turmoil and the geopolitical uncertainty in that part of the world. We need more realism from our policymakers - of course, with Democrats in the White House and Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz in Germany, unfortunately, we are being a little bit too naive and unrealistic when it comes to planning energy resources for the next 60 years.,Sputnik: Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow and Tehran will continue to expand the use of national currencies in foreign trade settlements. How will this affect the dollar's dominance?,Dr Azadgan: Before we even talk about the Iranian rial and the Russian ruble exchange, this is a major breakaway from the past, I would say, 80 years where petroleum was only supposed to be traded in the US dollar given the US dollar’s tremendous power. And unfortunately, we've seen the weaponization of the dollar in the past few decades - this is the problem. Yes, this is a clear and present danger to United States national interests.,WorldTehran Exchange Launches Trading in Iranian Rial/Ruble19 July, 10:06 GMT,Several years ago, China and Russia exchanged an oil contract where the Russians provided oil and natural gas to China and the whole thing was around $400 billion when it was exchanged in rubles and yuan. At that time, US policymakers took notice. And now we are in this situation where because of the US' rash reaction into pushing for a war, believe it or not, between Russia and Ukraine, more countries as a result of that are leaning toward the East. And by east, I mean the shifting of power to China and Russia.,China has tremendous manufacturing capabilities. Russia - the same in addition to tremendous amounts of all sorts of natural resources and rare minerals. In the decades to come, we will see the weakening of the dollar, which would result in the US national debt, which is $28 trillion, more or less. That's going to be a problem that will contribute into inflation. And we saw how Mr Biden had to go to Saudi Arabia and lobby Mohammed bin Salman to open up the coffers of oil so that prices go down. That would have been never possible in the past.,Crude Prices Skyrocket After Biden Returns From Saudi Arabia Without Oil Deal18 July, 15:17 GMT,The US president had to go to Saudi Arabia and beg for oil. Usually that was done through a phone call. And if the answer was ‘No’ by the Saudis, guess what? That would have been a coup in the palace. So, unfortunately, we have put ourselves in a situation where we have lost our leverage or are in the way of losing more leverage.,Sputnik: To what extent will the switch to national currencies help eliminate the effect of Western-imposed sanctions?,Dr Azadgan: That's where we're going: from this point on, because of all the miscalculations and the weaponization of the dollar, countries are eventually going to do that. They're not going to peg their currency against the dollar, which has been the case. Don't forget, the Iranian economy has been in shambles during the past 15 years. When it comes to this $40 billion oil contract, the Iranian currency lost 9/10th of its value since 2013, when President Ahmadinejad left office - they went from 3500 tomans to over 30,000 tomans [1 toman = 10,000 rials].,RussiaKremlin: Russia and Iran May Ditch Dollar When Measuring Bilateral Trade Volume18 July, 09:12 GMT,This has been a disaster. Because they decided to peg their currency even more toward a US dollar. And this is an Iranian liberal policy leaning more toward the West, whereas the Iranian conservatives have a tendency to lean more toward the growing economies of the east. There's demand for the Iranian currency that would hopefully have an impact on the Iranian rial currency to stop hemorrhaging. It's at a point where we could possibly face a major economic collapse in Iran, which would even make the prices of oil higher. I think Russia is stepping in at the right time, in the right place, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and we'll see where that will go.,Sputnik: How important is Russia's and Iran's cooperation over the JCPOA, especially amid increased US attention towards a diplomatic resolution? How strong is Iran now in this regard?,Dr Azadgan: Washington has no one to blame but the previous administration. In 2018, President [Donald] Trump reneged from the P5+1 [the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) plus Germany]. Iran was single-handedly negotiating with six superpowers, with one stroke of the pen President Trump got us out of that, and Iranians have lost all hopes in US in terms of their liberal persuasion within the Iranian political power structure. That's why we had Mr. Raisi coming in, the Conservatives coming in, and President Putin's visit to Iran, many visits to Iran during the liberal administration of President Rouhani, in my estimation, was an economic, political, geopolitical and military persuasion of Iranians to lean more towards the East.,Had the JCPOA been successful under the Rouhani administration, the country would have leaned westward for decades to come. Those policies failed, and as a result, we have conservatives in the Iranian executive branch, and there's a shift in power in that country. The JCPOA, I'm afraid, won't be going anywhere. It's just for keeping up appearances. Having said that, let us not forget that at the very beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Washington was very concerned to get reassurances from Russia that there is no nuclear non-proliferation going on by the Iranians.,Biden, Lapid Sign Joint Declaration Pledging to 'Never Allow Iran to Acquire Nuclear Weapon'14 July, 11:15 GMT,That's their number one concern in the Middle East right now because of the terrible relationship between Iran and Israel. But the fact that this topic came up in the first place shows how much Washington is worried, the Biden administration is worried that Iranians could be very close to having weapon-grade bomb, even though they clearly have denied it, for decades to come they claim they just want to enrich uranium and they want peaceful use of the technology. But Washington is not buying that.,Sputnik: What could Russia’s role be in securing the JCPOA?,Dr Azadgan: It's a very difficult situation. On the one hand, President Biden is desperate. His poll numbers are so low in this country because of inflation, because of the high price of oil. So if somehow the US and Iran decide, especially the US decides to bring Iran's oil production online - as you know, Iran is capable of exporting around 2,5 to 3 million barrels per day; under US sanctions it's not even 500,000. And the rest of it, let's just say they use creative methods of exporting the oil. If that supply comes online, the price of oil will come down. But I don't think Biden wants to negotiate at all with the Iranians, and the Iranians don't trust them. I think the Iranians really negotiated in good faith. If you ask me very naively that liberal Rouhani administration. And look at what they got for it, in 2018, just with a push of a pen, the whole thing was reneged. There's really not much to salvage out of JCPOA because I don't see any policy changes from the Biden administration at all.,West in Hurry to Conclude JCPOA Deal Amid Ukraine Crisis, Iranian Negotiator Says4 July, 13:52 GMT,They see Iran right now in the grips of conservatives. The conservatives are hawks just like any other nation. They negotiate more realistically, shall we say. And Iran is at a point where they have enriched uranium up to 60 percent. And militarily, they are very powerful. I think that for the time being, they have the upper hand, minus their economy, which is in shambles. But in other areas, they have the upper hand. It really depends on what kind of signals we get from the Biden administration and knowing how, unfortunately, the Israeli lobby plays such a crucial role in US foreign policy in the Middle East, we have also to keep in mind how willing Israel will be in back-channel communications possibly taking place. We do know, however, that under the Rouhani administration, this is a matter of fact, there were very covert back-channel conversations between Iran and Israel, and that was not to the liking of the IRGC and the conservatives. So it's very, very convoluted.,There's a massive deficit of trust between the US and Iran. And just because Russia is in a difficult position right now, I don't see Iranians turning their back toward the Russians and trust Washington and be disappointed again. The Iranians really have no one to trust, if you ask me. They're petrified of being of any superpower’s pawn. This is very important. There is no good history between some of Iran's new allies now. I think it's a battle of persuading the Iranian public on the policies that the Iranian government is suggesting. There's a lot of persuasion that needs to be done because they’re looking at decades to come. Literally the Russo-Iranian relations, which go further, they're looking at a change in policy for decades to come. I think Washington is very much petrified of that.,Sputnik: What about an agreement on grain exports? Can we expect a breakthrough in this, through the joint efforts of Russia and Turkey?,Dr Azadgan: We have to. We could be at the threshold of a famine in the world. Don't forget that the biggest importers of Russia's grain are some of the poorest countries in the world. The top five are Egypt at $3.2 billion; Turkey, since they are part of this negotiation in Tehran, at $1.7 billion a year, buying Russian wheat; Nigeria, one of the poorest countries in the world, but one of the richest in terms of natural resources, they import $566 million; Bangladesh, practically an economic disastrous country.,I'm afraid they will be next after Sri Lanka, they aim for $409 billion, followed by another very poor but powerful country, Pakistan, which imports close to $400 billion a year of Russian wheat. And then Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey are the fastest growing export markets for Russia. So it's extremely, extremely important because you're talking about the food supply chain security. The top five exporters of wheat in the world are first and foremost Russia, followed by the US, Australia, Canada and Ukraine at the fifth place. And after Ukraine it is France, Argentina and Germany. And the fastest export market for Ukraine is Pakistan, Lebanon and Vietnam.,Istanbul Grain DealErdogan Hopes to See Implementation of UN Plan on ‘Grain Issue’ in Coming Days20 July, 12:09 GMT,So Russia and Ukraine are finding themselves in a difficult competitive position for the Pakistani market. And everyone knows how Lebanon is on the verge of economic and social and political collapse. The only one that is somehow unscathed is Vietnam. So they just have to find a way to negotiate the export exit of Ukrainian wheat through the Black Sea, through the Turkish Strait and into the Middle Eastern and African markets, they are very much at risk.。
二 | 巴黎时间10月19日上午9:30左右，在卢浮宫开放的第一个小时内、游客已进入展厅后，一起珠宝抢劫在其内的阿波罗廊（Galerie d’Apollon）发生。劫匪借用外墙的梯子攀抵上层窗户，只用了几分钟就劫走了9件无价之宝（一件后被找回）。随后博物馆紧急关闭，警方采取行动。 一、哪些珠宝遗失了？ 第一件被确认的被盗物，是曾属于欧仁妮皇后的王冠。幸运的是，劫匪在逃跑路上遗落了这件镶有钻石和祖母绿的金质王冠；不幸的是，它已经被损坏了，需要得到修复。 拍摄：Luna 欧仁妮（Eugénie de Montijo），是拿破仑三世的妻子。皇冠总共使用了56颗祖母绿和1354颗钻石，又靠黄金做出帝国双头鹰与繁复的花叶纹样。本与拿破仑三世的皇冠是形状相同的一对，皇帝的那只已经消失不见，更显皇后这只珍贵。 在数小时的人心惶惶后，法国文化部公布了另外8件被盗展品： 法国王后玛丽-阿梅莉（Queen Marie-Amélie）蓝宝石珠宝套装的一部分，包括一顶蓝宝石冠冕、与其配套的项链与一只耳环； 拿破仑一世的第二任妻子玛丽-路易丝（Marie-Louise）的祖母绿项链与配套耳环； 欧仁妮皇后（Empress Eugénie）的珍珠冠冕、一枚大型钻石胸饰和一枚钻石胸针。
三 | 部分失窃物丨拍摄：Luna 这些物件都属于法国的“王室珠宝”，宝石、珍珠与贵金属的价值远远低于它们的文化价值。金与银中交缠的是财富与家族命运，宝石上记载着帝国权力交替和时代洪流中的个人命运。失窃不单是物质损失，更是对公共记忆的一次伤害。 玛丽-阿梅莉王后的蓝宝石首饰 冠冕共镶嵌24颗无烧斯里兰卡蓝宝石，并镶嵌1083颗钻石。这套冠冕先后由奥坦斯王后、玛丽-阿梅莉王后和奥尔良的伊莎贝尔佩戴。
四 | 它一直留在奥尔良家族手中，直到1985年卢浮宫购入。 这套套装最初包含一顶冠冕、一条项链、一对耳环、两枚小胸针和一枚大胸针、一把梳子和两只手镯（卢浮宫藏品中未见）。 玛丽-路易丝皇后的祖母绿套装 1810年前后，拿破仑为他的第二任妻子玛丽-路易丝准备了数件结婚礼物，就包括这条祖母绿项链和耳环。项链镶嵌有32颗哥伦比亚祖母绿和1138颗钻石，曲线优美。 欧仁妮皇后的冠冕与胸饰 欧仁妮皇后是法国最具标志性的时尚与权力的象征人物，她的珠宝首饰承袭了上一个时代的柔美，也以独特的造型引领了新时代的潮流。 这件蝴蝶结形胸衣饰品，是19世纪最令人印象深刻的饰品之一。它共镶嵌2634颗钻石，高22.2厘米宽10.5厘米，比一个巴掌还大。它虽沉重却不坚硬，精湛的镶嵌工艺赋予蝴蝶结和流苏极大的柔韧性，使宝石在轻微的摆动中熠熠生辉。 2008年，它出现在了佳士得的一场拍卖上，估价400万~600万美元。卢浮宫紧急参与协商，在拍卖开始前的最后时刻，与卖家私下达成交易，将其纳入“王室珠宝”收藏。 珍珠冠冕宽19厘米高7厘米，在同类饰品中也属于重器。令人印象深刻的是它漩涡形的结构，和顶部饰有钻石叶子托起的梨形天然海水珍珠。
五 | 欧仁妮皇后的饰品都在同一个展柜中 这枚“圣物”钻石胸针，制作于1855年，镶有数颗令人目瞪口呆的巨型钻石。胸针中央的两颗心型钻石，是红衣主教马萨林遗赠给路易十四的礼物（马萨林钻石17与18），还有钻石曾镶嵌在路易十四的外套、玛丽-安托瓦内特王后的耳环上。这对钻石幸免于经历了1793年法国大革命、1887年法国王室珠宝拍卖，现在却被劫匪带走。
六 | 二、劫案是如何发生的？ 上午9点30分左右，4名作案者到达了卢浮宫主建筑的东南角，其中至少有1人身穿黄色背心伪装成维修人员。他们使用梯子和升降吊篮攀至阿波罗廊外的阳台，再破窗进入，然后借助角磨机（也有媒体称是链锯）打开了玻璃展柜。 现场目击游客称，他们先打破了离窗子最近的欧仁妮皇后展柜，然后又打破旁边柜子。整个抢劫时间只花了4分钟（一说7分钟）。 三、劫案发生地是哪里？ 被洗劫的阿波罗廊，是卢浮宫最重要的房间，17世纪为彰显“太阳王”路易十四的气势而装饰得华美非凡。这里长期陈列法国王室与帝国时期的银器、王冠与仪仗用品，亦是国家象征的展示场所。卢浮宫将大量珍宝（包括23件王室珠宝）放置于此，直接向公众展示。 王室珠宝中第一号“摄政王钻石”（Régent diamond）此次幸免于难。摄政王钻石重140.64克拉，曾镶在路易十五的王冠上，后被拿破仑用于加冕剑。它身世离奇：这颗钻石在1698年左右产自印度，原重410克拉。
七 | 一个奴隶划破自己的大腿，把它藏在了伤口里；但是，一个英国海员杀死奴隶、偷出了钻石，把钻石卖给了一个印度商人；再后来，一个英国官员Thomas Pitt得到钻石，把它切到如今的样子；1717年，路易十五的摄政王、奥尔良公爵腓力二世以13.5万英镑 (相当于2015年的1亿852万英镑）买下了钻石——之后它就一直是法国的王室珠宝了。
八 | 四、这里的珠宝都是真的吗？ 阿波罗廊内的藏品都可以说是“真品”。有一件确实算真伪并存，就是刚刚提到的“路易十五王冠”，卢浮宫也写得很清楚： 该王冠于1722年为路易十五加冕而制，原本镶嵌包括摄政王钻石在内的多颗名钻。1885年法国第三共和国决定拍卖大部分法国王室珠宝；为保留国家象征，王冠框架被保留作为展品，但其上的贵重宝石已被替换为玻璃或仿石。玻璃和真身的摄政王钻石并列而放，也是很有意思。 此次被盗的珠宝都制造于19世纪，有数件都在漫长的时光中被改装过。
九 | 但重要的是，它们传承有序、确切可查，因此被公认为“真品”。 五、卢浮宫不是第一次被盗了 卢浮宫的安保有多脆皮，现在全世界都知道了。大白天，警卫都上班了，4个盗贼爬梯子闯了进去，人现在还没抓到…… 卢浮宫也不是第一次失窃了。1911年《蒙娜丽莎》被窃，是雇员作案。1976年阿波罗廊（对，同个地方），查理十世的加冕剑被盗，后面再无下文。1983年5月31日，又有16世纪铠甲被盗；奇迹的是，2021年又找回来了。 甚至卢浮宫的珠宝去年就失窃过。2024年11月，巴黎Cognacq-Jay博物馆遭到暴力抢劫，7件精美珍贵的珠宝盒遗失。当时该博物馆正举办临时展览，7件遗失物中来自卢浮宫、英国皇家收藏和维多利亚与阿尔伯特博物馆的藏品。就在4天前，10月16日， 5件被宣布找回。 眼熟吗？丨维多利亚与阿尔伯特博物馆 六、丢失的珠宝还能找回来吗？ 有希望，但不能太乐观。 与此次卢浮宫劫案一样震惊世界的，是2019年11月25日的德国绿穹珍宝馆（Grünes Gewölbe）事件：清晨，窃贼先纵火破坏电力配电箱，切断街灯与警报系统，然后从窗户破入，使用斧头破坏展柜，取走了大量珠宝，估价1.13亿欧元。 当年失窃物品中的一部分丨萨克森警察部门 德国警方于2022年找回了其中31件赃物，但并非全部。数件重要物品仍然下落不明，如镶有49克拉萨克森白钻石“Saxon White”的胸饰。 德累斯顿官方公布的失窃物品 卢浮宫也找回来过失窃物，就是上文所说的盔甲。
十 | 失窃后，它在私人收藏界销声匿迹近四十年。2021年 1 月，拍卖商聘请了一位法国军事文物专家对波尔多某家族的遗产估价，专家认出了这两件赃物并报案…… Police Nacionale via Twitter 对于那些拥有独特历史印记和艺术价值、难以分解或易于辨认的藏品，只要其照片和历史信息被完整保留，博物馆和执法部门就永远有机会将其找回。 但是，顶级珠宝由于镶嵌了大量的钻石和珍贵宝石，一旦失窃极易被迅速拆解，甚至钻石会被重新打磨——那就再也认不出原样了。本次卢浮宫案中若盗贼有喘息之机，拆下珍珠与钻石、打散出手，那么找回难度极大；如果仍以原型保存，那么将来回归的可能性还是有的。 让我们期待奇迹的发生。
十一 | 本文来自微信公众号：果壳，作者：luna。
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